Artificial Intelligence Underestimated: Why Decision Makers Must Prioritize AI-Focus

Abstract

In the next decade, the United States is at significant risk of losing AI leadership to China with a clear risk to international security and the balance of power. As current AI trends show revolutionary change in the military through autonomous systems, in the economy through risk of massive unemployment, and in the information environment through eroding social trust, policymakers must prioritize AI focus to prepare for a near, risky, and uncertain AI future. While modern AI has been around since the 1950s, future AI advancements is potentially so rapid that the next few decades will see an AI revolution with greater impact on life than nuclear and biological threats or the effects of climate change. This paper examines the driving forces behind evolving AI (i.e., computing power, AI experts, and data), some of the current and future trends of AI in the military, economic, and information domain, and the battle for AI leadership between the United States and China in the next decade. In the military domain, AI has the potential to revolutionize the way of war with intelligence analysis, improving situational awareness, autonomous systems, robotics, enhanced decision-making, and cyber capabilities. In the information domain, AI can become so capable in behavioral data analysis, pattern recognition, distributing disinformation, creating deep fakes, or manipulate content people see, that there is a risk for social trust to erode. In the economic domain, AI will radically alter how people work, and if the tempo of AI job replacement outpaces the creation of new jobs, there is a risk of massive unemployment and rise in inequality. All these effects impact international security and the balance of great powers in a future where China is likely to dominate the field of AI. This future prospect demands full attention of policymakers, decision-makers, and the wider community in general. While the United States currently enjoys AI leadership, China is catching up fast.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 17, 2020
Accession Number
AD1177535

Entities

People

  • Andries T. Broersma

Organizations

  • Marine Corps University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Autonomy
  • Cyber
  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Artificial Intelligence Software
  • Automata Theory
  • Autonomous Systems
  • Autonomous Weapons
  • Big Data
  • Climate Change
  • Computational Science
  • Computer Languages
  • Computers
  • Data Analysis
  • Deep Learning
  • Department Of Defense
  • Employment
  • Fake News
  • Information Systems
  • International Security
  • Machine Learning
  • National Security
  • Neural Networks
  • New York
  • Security
  • United States
  • Unmanned Vehicles

Readers

  • Agent-Based Social Robotics and Mobile-Assisted Learning in Virtual Environments.
  • Economics
  • Geospatial Intelligence and Artificial Intelligence Analytics

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - DoD AI Strategy
  • Autonomy
  • Cyber