Nuclear Winter: Uncertainties Surround the Long-Term Effects of Nuclear War
Abstract
Before 1982, studies on the effects of nuclear war focused mainly on immediate blast damage, radioactive fallout, and potential harm to the ozone layer which shields the earth from harmful ultraviolet rays. Two recognized reference works on the effects of nuclear war were issued by the National Academy of Sciences in 1976, and by the Office of Technology Assessment in 1979, Neither dealt substantively with long-term environmental effects. In 1982 research began to suggest that soot, smoke, and dust injected into the atmosphere could produce global environmental and climatic disturbances. Nuclear winter was the term chosen by one research group to portray those effects. The National Academy of Sciences, in December 1984, completed a Department of Defense (DOD) funded study assessing the nuclear winter theory. Stressing the many uncertainties in the theory's assumptions, this report found the theory plausible and recommended further research to reduce the uncertainties. Although the Academy could not confidently quantify potential long-term consequences, it did assert that nuclear war analyses should consider nuclear winter implications. U.S. research is now trying to reduce these uncertainties. Approximately $3.6 million was devoted to nuclear winter studies in fiscal year 1986, principally through the Departments of Defense and Energy and the National Science Foundation. Fiscal year 1986 funding will be $6.6 million, and the research will be guided by an interagency plan developed at the request of the Presidents Science Advisor.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1986
- Accession Number
- AD1180582
Entities
People
- Charles Arthur Bowsher
Organizations
- United States Government Accountability Office