Nuclear Winter: Uncertainties Surround the Long-Term Effects of Nuclear War

Abstract

Before 1982, studies on the effects of nuclear war focused mainly on immediate blast damage, radioactive fallout, and potential harm to the ozone layer which shields the earth from harmful ultraviolet rays. Two recognized reference works on the effects of nuclear war were issued by the National Academy of Sciences in 1976, and by the Office of Technology Assessment in 1979, Neither dealt substantively with long-term environmental effects. In 1982 research began to suggest that soot, smoke, and dust injected into the atmosphere could produce global environmental and climatic disturbances. Nuclear winter was the term chosen by one research group to portray those effects. The National Academy of Sciences, in December 1984, completed a Department of Defense (DOD) funded study assessing the nuclear winter theory. Stressing the many uncertainties in the theory's assumptions, this report found the theory plausible and recommended further research to reduce the uncertainties. Although the Academy could not confidently quantify potential long-term consequences, it did assert that nuclear war analyses should consider nuclear winter implications. U.S. research is now trying to reduce these uncertainties. Approximately $3.6 million was devoted to nuclear winter studies in fiscal year 1986, principally through the Departments of Defense and Energy and the National Science Foundation. Fiscal year 1986 funding will be $6.6 million, and the research will be guided by an interagency plan developed at the request of the Presidents Science Advisor.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1986
Accession Number
AD1180582

Entities

People

  • Charles Arthur Bowsher

Organizations

  • United States Government Accountability Office

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Arms Control
  • Civil Defense
  • Climate Change
  • Combustion
  • Computers
  • Congress
  • Crisis Management
  • Department Of Defense
  • Department Of Homeland Security
  • Department Of State
  • Ecology
  • Environment
  • Environmental Protection
  • Law
  • National Security
  • Nuclear Explosions
  • Nuclear Fallout
  • Nuclear Weapons
  • United States

Fields of Study

  • Physics

Readers

  • Nuclear and Radiation Engineering.
  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Technical Research and Report Writing.