Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision-Making
Abstract
The primary objective of the SAS-114 Research Task Group was to investigate methods of improving intelligence assessments and communicating the uncertainties surrounding such assessments clearly to decision-makers. For this undertaking, SAS-114 members collected and evaluated a wide range of uncertainty communication standards currently used in defence and security as well as in other domains including law enforcement, climate science, and medicine. This analytic task addressed two broad problem areas: (a) the promulgation of multiple, inconsistent uncertainty communication standards within and across nations and (b) the use of standards that are either conceptually flawed or poorly suited to the specific context of application. SAS-114 members also conducted original research and analysis on topics including monitoring forecasting skill in intelligence; evaluating structured analytic techniques for improving intelligence assessment; and the incorporation of evidence-based techniques into analytical tradecraft and training. A key recommendation of SAS-114 is that intelligence organizations should leverage judgment-and-decision science to verify and improve the quality of their analytic processes and, by extension, intelligence products. By systematically drawing on relevant scientific evidence, intelligence organizations could improve their accuracy, rig our, and communication fidelity, which in turn should better support sound decision-making and interoperability within NATO.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1183706
Entities
People
- David R Mandel
Organizations
- NATO Science and Technology Organization