Adversary Intent: A Case Study of North Korea

Abstract

The Question: Is there a way to measure adversary Intent? Specifically, can social science frameworks/models help to assess adversary intent?; We argue that social science models help to identify behavioral actions and responses that could help explain specific adversarys beliefs, goals and needs; We tested two models using the case of North Korea, combining them into a hybrid model to assess adversary intent. Additionally, we are cross examining these results with event data regarding specific actions connected to the year communicated; This insight can help deterrence professionals in tailoring their deterrence message. Further more, this paper argues that this hybrid model can help policy makers and planners understand if an adversary has the intent to perform specific deterrence actions.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 18, 2019
Accession Number
AD1183765

Entities

People

  • Heather Kearney
  • Michelle Black

Organizations

  • University of Nebraska Omaha

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Case Studies
  • Coding
  • Decoding
  • Deterrence
  • Identities
  • Korea
  • Leadership
  • Literature
  • Nationalism
  • Neuropsychology
  • New York
  • North Korea
  • Orientation (Direction)
  • Personality
  • Political Science
  • Psychology
  • Social Psychology
  • Social Sciences

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Irregular Warfare and Special Operations Cyberspace Operations against Adversarial Threats.
  • Systems Analysis and Design