Search Models of a Moving Target

Abstract

Adversarial submarine activity in the Atlantic has steadily intensified over the past few years. Furthermore, strategic adversaries have developed sophisticated and stealthy submarines, making them much more difficult to locate. The heightened activity coupled with advanced platforms have allowed the United States adversaries to challenge its dominance in the underwater domain. Though extensive research has been performed on optimized search strategies using Bayesian search methods, most methodologies in the open literature focus on searching for stationary objects rather than searching for a moving Red submarine conducted by a Blue submarine. Thusly motivated, we develop a model of an enemy submarine whose goal is to avoid detection. As the search effort is expended, a posterior probability distribution for the enemy submarines location is calculated based on negative search results. We present a methodology for finding a search pattern that attempts to maximize the probability of detection in a Bayesian framework utilizing Markovian properties. Specifically, we study three different running window methods: a simple network optimization model, a network optimization model that performs updates after every time period that is planning the entire route, and a dynamic program that only looks two time periods ahead.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2022
Accession Number
AD1184752

Entities

People

  • Ryan P Bailey

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • Antisubmarine Warfare
  • Applied Mathematics
  • Ballistic Missile Submarines
  • California
  • Detection
  • Dynamic Programming
  • Game Theory
  • Naval Operations
  • Navy
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Schools
  • Security
  • Submarine Warfare
  • Submarines
  • United States
  • United States Naval Academy

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Sensor Fusion and Tracking Systems.
  • Strategic Security Studies

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - Machine Learning Algorithms