Managing the Escalation Risks of U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific

Abstract

The expansion of Chinese military activities and capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region has led the United States to increase its own military activities in the region. This brief describes how the United States can select and shape its military activities to deter Chinese aggression against U.S. allies and partners while also limiting the risks of escalatory Chinese reactions. Grounded in 14 case studies of reactions by the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) to U.S. military activities and other events in the Indo-Pacific, this brief offers U.S. military planners a framework to identify the PRC perceptions that are likely to cause an aggressive or escalatory PRC response. The authors then discuss which potential U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific region could affect the PRC perceptions and thus the risk of an escalatory response. The research team created a typology of potential short-term PRC responses from least intense to most intense in the political, economic, and military spheres. The team also considered potential longer-term PRC responses in each sphere. This typology summarizes the menu of response options that the PRC could select, depending on the PRC perceptions, the U.S. activity characteristics, and the broader context in which the U.S. activities are undertaken. The authors outline the implications regarding general types of U.S. activities that could escalate tensions to various degrees, specific examples of U.S. activities that could do the same, and broader lessons for U.S. policymakers. This brief concludes with recommendations for U.S. military planners.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 13, 2023
Accession Number
AD1190383

Entities

People

  • Bonny Lin
  • Bryan A. Frederick
  • Bryan Rooney
  • Christian Curriden
  • Cortez A. Iii Cooper
  • Cristina L. Garafola
  • Emily Ellinger
  • James Benkowski
  • Jeffrey W. Hornung
  • Karl P. Mueller
  • Kristen Gunness
  • Nathan Chandler
  • Paul Orner
  • Timothy R. Heath

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Asia
  • Boost Glide Vehicles
  • Case Studies
  • Chinese Language
  • Command And Control
  • Commerce
  • Corporations
  • Cruise Missiles
  • Economic Development
  • Gray Zone
  • Hong Kong
  • Hypersonic Weapons
  • Marine Corps
  • Military Capabilities
  • Military Doctrine
  • Military Exercises
  • Perception
  • Prompt Global Strike
  • Security
  • South Korea
  • Southeast Asia
  • Targets
  • United States

Readers

  • Asian Economic Studies
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.