Implementation of COVID-19 Control Measures Given Prevailing Rates and Effectiveness of Vaccination
Abstract
In this document, we discuss the requirements and opportunities for using various measures to control outbreaks of COVID-19, and in particular explore the relationship between vaccine compliance rates in a population and the requirements for implementing other control measures. We begin by developing a profile of mean individual COVID-19 transmission over time, accounting for both pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission, to allow us to determine the impact of timing on control measure effectiveness. We consider a layered use of control measures, beginning with vaccination and adding isolation, triggered by either symptom onset or as a result of diagnostic testing, and finally quarantine. Our work shows that COVID-19 outbreaks cannot be controlled solely through isolation of symptomatic individuals, given the high transmissibility of COVID-19 combined with asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission. Vaccines can overcome this challenge if they are sufficiently effective, and if compliance rates are sufficiently high. Yet, if vaccine compliance rates remain low in certain regions, or if the effectiveness of vaccines is compromised by the emergence of variants, transmission of COVID-19 may continue or even increase. Should that be the case, our assessment shows that assuming prompt isolation of symptomatic individuals continues implementation of quarantine and/or population-wide diagnostic testing can cause an outbreak to wane.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1196228
Entities
People
- Julia K. Burr
- Lucas A. Laviolet
- Robert L. Cubeta
- Sean M. Oxford
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses