Optimizing First-Term Retention of Sailors
Abstract
In many cases, a low retention rate of first-term sailors indicates that unsatisfactory sailors who are struggling to find guidance also cannot find a career path that fits them. Helping each sailor find their best fit can improve the retention rate in the Navy. The Navy recently developed the Job Opportunities In the Navy (JOIN) program to help sailors find their career paths on the Bureau of Naval Personnel Online. However, there are not enough data to support the effectiveness of JOIN. Based on a dataset obtained from the Navy Enlisted System, we first analyze which factors correlate to sailors stays in the Navy. Then using the results from the first part of the analysis, we set up a probability distribution model to maximize the retention rate of enlisted sailors in the Navy. The result from this study can be used to help first-term sailors with JOIN. First, we conduct an analysis using a binomial logistic regression model and then calculate the models accuracy using a confusion matrix. Second, using the variables we select in the first part of our analysis, we set up an optimization model, specifically a probability distribution model, to maximize the retention rates of enlisted sailors. Our model produces a list of rates, from the highest probability of retention rate to the lowest probability for recruits.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2022
- Accession Number
- AD1200594
Entities
People
- Young S. Hong
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School