Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick Preventing U.S. - China Conflict Over Taiwan

Abstract

Military leaders publicly predicting that China will invade Taiwan imminently or on a specific timeline have raised concerns that hawkish rhetoric on the US side is increasing the potential for armed conflict. Through analysis of public statements and speeches from US military leaders, the paper highlights the emergence of two divergent approaches that the joint force has used to discuss the potential for conflict. Drawing from the historical examples of the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis and the Haiyang Shiyou 981 oil rig crisis with Vietnam, this paper analyzes how messaging, signaling, and PRC perceptions of prestige and legitimacy impact China's military decision-making. The paper concludes by recommending measures to reduce the risk of military conflict in the region through messaging and signaling consistent with longstanding US policy.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 12, 2023
Accession Number
AD1201464

Entities

People

  • Brian M. Sperlongano

Organizations

  • Naval War College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Department Of Defense
  • Governments
  • Information Operations
  • Instructors
  • International Relations
  • Law
  • Military Science
  • National Security
  • Naval Operations
  • Navy
  • New York
  • Students
  • United States
  • United States Pacific Command
  • War Colleges
  • Warfare

Fields of Study

  • Political science

Readers

  • Asian Economic Studies
  • Economics
  • Educational Psychology