Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach

Abstract

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and subsequent behavior in prosecuting the war have led the United States to adopt a wartime policy of supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia. As of this writing in March 2023, it seems likely that the United States will sustain a hardline policy toward Russia even after the conflict ends. However, over the long term, the United States will retain at least some structural incentives to pursue a relationship with Russia that has lower costs and risks; among these incentives are the need to focus on China and on U.S. domestic challenges. Policymakers might therefore eventually decide to explore alternative approaches to dealing with Russia. This report evaluates the trade-offs that might be associated with a less-hardline approach to Russia in peacetime using a series of historical case studies. The report is intended to inform U.S. policymakers who might consider such a course in the future. The report does not consider wartime policy or war termination and therefore is not intended to inform discussions regarding U.S. policy towards Russia during the ongoing war in Ukraine. The research for this report was completed in January 2022. However, the analysis has been updated to address Russia's invasion of Ukraine and discuss the longer-term applicability of our findings.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 19, 2023
Accession Number
AD1201497

Entities

People

  • Alexandra Evans
  • Bryan A. Frederick
  • Bryan Rooney
  • Gabrielle Tarini
  • Miranda Priebe
  • Samuel Charap

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

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  • Arms Control
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  • Foreign Relations
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Fields of Study

  • Political science

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  • Strategic Security Studies