Ice Condition (ICECON) Model
Abstract
The ice condition (ICECON) index is a decision support tool for management to communicate to mariners in the Great Lakes. It describes ice conditions severity and the potential impacts to vessels navigating in the region. The ICECON Model, which calculates and forms the index, is developed using a linear optimization algorithm. A Monte Carlo optimization scheme was employed to determine the appropriate weights or coefficients for each environmental parameter (ice concentration, ice thickness, ice air temperature, ice divergence, and dynamic ice pressure). Early feedback from District Nine (D9), Great Lakes' mariners, and stakeholders have been positive. National Ice Center (NIC) has agreed to assist Arctic Domain Awareness Center (ADAC) in publishing ICECON products (i.e. forecasts, plots, charts displaying ice concentration and thickness) and mariner observation reports to D9 for operational use. Furthermore, in a recent annual conference ""Securing S and T success for the coming Arctic"" conducted by ADAC, DHS S and T discussed extending their work plan with ADAC to continue ICECON research in District 17 (D17). For these reasons coupled with the strong partnership garnered between NIC and ADAC during this effort, the CG Research and Development Center recommends the ICECON Model transition to the NIC for the time being for further examination. This will give D9 time to determine the model's accuracy and feasibility for official implementation into CG operations.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1205841
Entities
People
- Sam Cheung