Chinese Demographic Collapse Demands Strategic Ambiguity
Abstract
Advocates for strategic ambiguity, and its rejoinder strategic clarity, have long debated the merits of each, and papers on the topic are legion. However, the discourse has centered on an ascendant China. The Peoples Republic of China is about to enter a period of economic collapse based on demographic imbalance. As the Chinese Communist Party recognizes the dire prospects for China's long-term future, it is more important than ever to maintain a policy of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan. With a sober understanding that 1) war with China should be avoided unless necessary to preserve the American way of life, 2) the PRC is facing an inevitable economic collapse, and 3) Xi Jinping is more likely to use force to take Taiwan this decade in light of that collapse, the US must pursue substance over symbolism. This approach requires actions that provide meaningful defense capabilities for Taiwan while avoiding overt statements and policies that are needlessly inflammatory. Maintaining strategic ambiguity is the central tenant of that posture.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 14, 2022
- Accession Number
- AD1206150
Entities
People
- Thomas M. Tauer
Organizations
- Naval War College