Should the U.S. Continue a Policy of Denuclearization Toward North Korea?
Abstract
Each U.S. president since Clinton, has in one form or another, held denuclearization as a precondition for negotiations with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Over thirty years of U.S. policies with denuclearization at their core have resulted in further nuclear development and missile testing. Indeed, as of 2022, experts "cautiously estimate that North Korea might have produced sufficient fissile materials to build 45 to 55 nuclear weapons and might have assembled 20 to 30 warheads for delivery primarily by medium-range ballistic missiles". Considering the consistent failure of previous efforts, should the U.S. continue and denuclearization policy toward the DPRK? The United States should adjust its policy from denuclearization to limiting further nuclear development while recognizing the DPRK as a de facto nuclear-capable state for the following three reasons: First, three decades of U.S. denuclearization efforts have failed to prevent the DPRK from achieving nuclear capability. Second, the DPRK will not relinquish its nuclear weapons peacefully. The Kim regime views other states that have relinquished weapons of mass destruction as cautionary tales to be avoided by maintaining a credible nuclear capability. Finally, denuclearization efforts are costly monetarily and diplomatically.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 27, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1206163
Entities
People
- Robert L. Johnson
Organizations
- Naval War College