The Global Economy at the Firm-Level Estimating Input-Output Linkages in Production Networks and the Potential for Systemic Risk

Abstract

Following the seminal work of Wassily Leontief, input-output analysis has been used to study the impact of one sector's outputs on the inputs to other sectors. With its computational advantages and breadth of application, input-output analysis widely used to study the impact of sectoral shocks ranging in source international, to environmental, to security. Advances in data collection make increasingly clear the role of firm-level shocks and their aggregate impacts. We contribute an approach that uses data on customer-supplier relationships for firm-level input-output analysis. We overcome challenges of missing data through inference techniques. We present estimate a true firm-level model with global input-output linkages to estimate the potential aggregate impacts of firm level shocks and empirically analyze the contributions of network structure to latent systemic risk.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 26, 2023
Accession Number
AD1206261

Entities

People

  • Aaron M. Strong
  • Giovanni Malloy
  • James Syme
  • Jessie Wang
  • Jonathan W. Welburn
  • Prateek Puri

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Autonomy
  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • Commerce
  • Communication Systems
  • Computational Science
  • Corporations
  • Economics
  • Heuristic Methods
  • Information Retrieval
  • Information Science
  • Information Systems
  • Machine Learning
  • National Security
  • Probability
  • Security
  • Standards
  • Supervised Machine Learning
  • Supply Chain
  • Test Sets
  • Topology

Readers

  • Economics
  • Regression Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - DoD AI Strategy