Mega-Trends: Data and Citizen Opinion on Governance and Conflict
Abstract
The level of conflict and organized violence in Africa has not diminished in the last decade, and in some cases increased significantly. At the same time, the global wave of democratic retreat, partly exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, has not spared the continent. Various regional and global governance indicators and public opinion data all point to declining quality of governance and democracy in most countries. In this chapter, we draw on expert data to highlight key trends of conflict and instability as well as governance and democracy on the continent in the last couple of decades. We complement the expert data with Afrobarometer survey data on citizen experiences of conflict and instability and their evaluations of democracy, quality of governance, and social conditions. We then examine Mali in more depth to demonstrate possible links between trends in public opinions and assessments of government performance and risk of conflict and instability. In retrospect, the protests by Malians and political instability could have been predicted from Afrobarometer survey data in that country. Looking ahead, we apply the perspectives gained from Mali's experience to present some troubling trends in public attitudes in South Africa and identify possible implications for stability and democratic development in that country.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2022
- Accession Number
- AD1206905
Entities
People
- Dorina A. Bekoe
- Joseph Asunka
- Stephanie M. Burchard
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses