Playing the Wrong Game: Why a Strategy of Denial for Taiwan is Not Enough
Abstract
This essay argues that the conventional assumption that the PRC is sequencing its strategy is wrong and that Beijing is actually pursuing a cumulative strategy of slow, persistent, contemporaneous military expansion across the South Pacific. Alarmingly, this expansion already mirrors what Japan had at the height of its dominance in the Pacific War. A strategy of denial for Taiwan, while necessary to fight the PRCs cumulative strategy in the Pacific, is not sufficient to contain the PRC or prevent conflict with the U.S. This is because cumulative PRC political, economic, and military expansion in the South Pacific gives Beijing its option of when and where to exert military pressure, not limited to Taiwan. As a result, the U.S. strategy of denial is mismatched with PRC strategy and is ill prepared to counter it. The U.S. should revise its military strategy for the PRC by shifting from a strategy of denial to a strategy of recapture using the full spectrum of national power, including military power if necessary, before the costs become too great.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 11, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1208178
Entities
People
- Isaac Jalkanen
Organizations
- Naval War College