United States-China Gray Zone Conflict in the 2027 to 2032 Battlespace

Abstract

This unclassified study examines strategic competition and the potential for a gray zone-origin military conflict between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United States in the 2027 to 2032 timeframe. In support of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) developed four independent scenarios across key DTRA-identified stress points (Taiwan, Senkaku Islands, South China Sea, and the Belt and Road Initiative [BRI]) that plausibly could trigger armed conflict. The scenarios will provide DTRA, in its role as a Combat Support Agency, with insight to assist U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) in identifying potential vulnerabilities and areas of improvements to Department of Defense capabilities and plans.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 2023
Accession Number
AD1208420

Entities

People

  • Brian K. Chappell
  • Robert G. Angevine

Organizations

  • Institute for Defense Analyses

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Aircrafts
  • Asia
  • Asymmetric Warfare
  • Coast Guard
  • Department Of Defense
  • Department Of State
  • Foreign Languages
  • Foreign Relations
  • Geography
  • Gray Zone
  • Intelligence Collection
  • Intergovernmental Organizations
  • International Law
  • International Organizations
  • Military Force Levels
  • Military Operations
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Navies (Foreign)
  • New York
  • Personnel Management
  • Security
  • South China Sea
  • Treaties
  • United States
  • War Colleges
  • Warfare

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Asian Economic Studies
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Missile Defense Systems.