Considering a Change in Taiwan's Status: Key Factors of a Peaceful Unification for U.S. Policymakers
Abstract
This paper takes an alternate approach to the Taiwan issue by considering the key factors that influence US interests in the Indo-Pacific region after the peaceful unification of Taiwan into the PRC, before the year 2040, to inform US policymakers' framing of the Taiwan issue. There are six key factors that US policymakers and military planners should consider when making future policies in the Indo-Pacific region if Taiwan is peacefully reunified with the People's Republic of China (PRC). First, the peaceful unification of Taiwan may have a limited impact on global shipping but could allow the PRC to compete with the current international economic system. Second, how the PRC challenges the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea in the Taiwan Strait may result in an immediate military crisis following the peaceful unification of Taiwan. Third, the US and PRC changes to force posture after a Taiwan unification may increase the chances of military conflict in the region. Fourth, when considering deploying military forces to reassure allies and partners, consider a more robust deterrence posture on the Korean peninsula, even in the face of the increasing risk of violence below the threshold of war. Fifth, South Korea may seek to develop nuclear weapons in response to an emboldened North Korea, a perception of deteriorating US defense relationships, lower confidence in global arms control, and observing increased US and PRC competition. Sixth, Japan could balance the nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula by serving as a global non-proliferation mediator and use the nuclearization of South Korea as a trigger for nuclear nations worldwide to reconsider nuclear arms controls in the region.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 13, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1210135
Entities
People
- Stephan Bohanan
Organizations
- Naval War College