The Nuclearization of Taiwan: A Bold Strategy for Peace
Abstract
China's rhetoric and aggression towards its neighbors have been at record-high levels since Xi Jinping assumed power in China. China has effectively eliminated the democratic freedoms formerly enjoyed by the citizens of Hong Kong. China can now prosecute a successful invasion of Taiwan, putting the U.S. in a difficult position to attempt a military response. It is not likely that the U.S. can fight China near Taiwan and walk away unscathed. China has developed substantial asymmetric capabilities to counter U.S. military strengths and exploit weaknesses. Unlike great power competition the U.S. has faced since WWII, China can match U.S. economic might making a war of attrition untenable. Taiwan is too important to Western Pacific peace and stability, and the U.S. must stand with partners to maintain global credibility. Taiwan needs the ability to defend itself, and the most effective and economically feasible measure of deterrence is nuclear weapons. Historically, nuclear weapon deterrence has a proven track record when aggressively postured. The risk of a violent Chinese response as an invasion or blockade is real, but there are ways to reduce those risks significantly. The U.S. must deliver nuclear weapons clandestinely, and they must ensure Taiwan does not declare its independence. To deal with a blockade, Taiwan must continue to build up its stock of supplies to give the U.S. and its allies time to respond with an unarmed resupply, as the allies did during the Berlin Airlift. Time is running out, and senior U.S. officials must ask themselves if Ukraine would be in its current predicament if they retained a nuclear arsenal. China has been boldly imposing its will in the Pacific and beyond for years. Therefore, the U.S. must act now as the window of opportunity to maintain the free and open Indo-Pacific may close permanently.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 12, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1210276
Entities
People
- Bj Seoung Lim
Organizations
- Naval War College