Case Study on Applying Sequential Analyses in Operational Testing

Abstract

Sequential Analysis is concerned with statistical evaluation in situations for which the number, pattern, or composition of the data is not determined at the start of the investigation, but instead depends upon the information acquired throughout the course of the investigation. The formal start of Sequential Analysis originates in ballistics testing for the Department of Defense (DOD) (Wald 1945; Wallis 1980), but we find that the use of sequential analysis is underutilized in the DOD. Expanding the use of sequential analysis has the potential to produce cost savings and reduce test time. In this paper, we provide a brief introduction to Sequential Analysis, describe its current and potential uses in operational test and evaluation (OT and E), and present a method for applying a sequential analysis to the test and evaluation of defense systems. We perform simulation studies and apply the method to a case study to evaluate the proposed method. Additionally, we discuss challenges that will need to be addressed for sequential analysis that are relevant for OT and E.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 2021
Accession Number
AD1210679

Entities

People

  • John W. Dennis
  • Keyla Pagn-rivera
  • Monica L. Ahrens
  • Rebecca M. Medlin

Organizations

  • Institute for Defense Analyses

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Ballistics
  • Case Studies
  • Data Mining
  • Data Science
  • Data Sets
  • Defense Systems
  • Department Of Defense
  • Experimental Design
  • Information Science
  • Probability
  • Second World War
  • Sequential Analysis
  • Simulations
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistics
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Test Methods

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Statistical inference.
  • Systems Analysis and Design