Deep Learning Probabilistic Regression for Onset Time Determination

Abstract

A software tool was developed to determine a seismic phase's arrival time, which is essential for subsequent processes, and can unburden analysts from manual onset time picking. The tool is a deep learning (DL) algorithm using a convolutional neural network to analyze the raw signal. The algorithm is a regression model that makes a probabilistic estimation. The onset times are a continuous interpolation between samples, so the algorithm could be more accurate than the discrete sample rate. The probabilistic output is achieved using an ensemble mask process. The variation in the output provides a measure of the uncertainty. The models were trained on International Data Center data. The final model had a mean absolute error of 0.574s over the test dataset, and by using the estimated STD of the probability as a measure of prediction confidence, the mean absolute error is reduced to 0.439s. Initially, the algorithm was trained and tested on P-waves but later extended to simultaneously identify the presence of P- and/or S-waves and their onset time.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 29, 2023
Accession Number
AD1211554

Entities

People

  • Artemii Novoselov
  • Greg Beroza
  • Jesse Williams
  • John Pace

Organizations

  • Stanford University

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Air Force Research Laboratories
  • Algorithms
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Artificial Intelligence Computing
  • Artificial Intelligence Software
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Computer Languages
  • Convolutional Neural Networks
  • Data Mining
  • Deep Learning
  • Detection
  • Information Science
  • Machine Learning
  • Neural Networks
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Probability

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Cardiovascular Physiology
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - Neural Networks