Verification and Validation of Naval Air Warfare Center Air Division (NAWCAD) F/A-18 Sustainment Model
Abstract
This thesis addresses Verification and Validation (V and V) efforts for the Naval Air Warfare Center Air Division (NAWCAD) FA-18 sustainment model to ensure the model can make predictions regarding Tier One mission needs of the Air Division. For the development of the model, the Institute for Defense Analytics (IDA) used SIMLOX as the software tool and developed a data pre-processing pipeline using historical supply data as the inputs for the pipeline. Once the data is pre-processed, the data is used as inputs to the model. This thesis verified the model for correctness using a structured walkthrough. Model validation was performed to ensure the model can predict the number of expenditures using a t-test and percent error between historical and projected expenditures. Using a t-test, the model failed to produce a confidence level of 0.95 to use the model for sustainment decisions in the future. Additionally, the model under-predicted the total number of expenditures required by 66 percent and 70 percent for all depot-level repairable items. These findings will be used to improve the model for the purpose of receiving accreditation as a performance and pricing model.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1212925
Entities
People
- Denntrick A. Horton
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School