NATO's Strategic Concepts and Post-Cold War Deterrence
Abstract
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 shook the European security architecture and created tensions between Russia and the West. In response, NATO announced in its 2022 Strategic Concept that it would regard Russia as the greatest threat and strengthen its deterrence and defense posture. Given ongoing tensions, the Alliance needs to reevaluate its deterrence and defense concepts. This thesis critically analyzes NATOs post Cold War Strategic Concepts, focusing on NATOs role in shaping deterrence policies in response to the changing dynamics of NATO Russia relations. The thesis concludes that the Allies and Russia have come into conflict due to differing worldviews. The expansion of NATOs collective security space followed Russia's decision to adopt a more confrontational stance. This conflict is not reflected in NATOs first three post Cold War Strategic Concepts but changed with Russia's intervention in Ukraine in 2014. NATO increasingly adjusted its deterrence and defense posture in Eastern Europe, culminating in its 2022 Strategic Concept, in which the Alliance henceforth restored NATO's core historical policy. Whether NATO can continue to rely on deterrence by punishment or shift to deterrence by denial remains open to debate. The latter would result in the Allies considering a complete redesign of the European security architecture to deploy troops at the Russian border permanently.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1213219
Entities
People
- Nik Eickhoff
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School