Nigeria's Presidential Amnesty Program: Successes, Failures, and Economic Incentives

Abstract

The oil-producing Niger Delta has been wrought with conflict for generations, resulting in the deaths of thousands and the decrease in oil production for Nigeria. In 2009, President Yar'Adua introduced the Presidential Amnesty Program (PAP) in hopes of bringing enduring peace to the region. The PAP provided stipend payments, professional training, and the promise of job placements for militants. In the first five years of the program, violent deaths in the Niger Delta dropped by 75 percent and oil production levels were restored. However, in the subsequent years, violent deaths have risen, and oil production has fallen well below pre-amnesty levels. This research evaluates the successes and failures of Nigeria's PAP to determine why the program was initially successful but has become increasingly ineffective with the passage of time. The research finds that the PAP initially succeeded in pacifying militants by providing financial incentives and bringing them into the newly created PAP network. However, the PAP failed to build enduring peace because it neglected large swaths of the population, and with the passage of time, the economic incentives for former militants dwindled due to the effect of inflation on militant's stipends. As a result, both the wider population and former militants have turned to widespread oil theft as a means to compensate for their economic plight.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2023
Accession Number
AD1213554

Entities

People

  • John R Magill

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • California
  • Economic Development
  • Economics
  • Employment
  • Environmental Protection
  • Ethnic Groups
  • Explosives
  • Foreign Relations
  • Geography
  • Governments
  • National Governments
  • National Security
  • Natural Resources
  • Organizational Structure
  • Petroleum
  • Petroleum Industry
  • Political Science
  • Security
  • Social Sciences
  • Social Welfare
  • Terrorism
  • Training

Readers

  • Industrial Economics
  • Military History of the United States in the 20th Century.
  • Military and Counterinsurgency Studies.