Nigeria's Presidential Amnesty Program: Successes, Failures, and Economic Incentives
Abstract
The oil-producing Niger Delta has been wrought with conflict for generations, resulting in the deaths of thousands and the decrease in oil production for Nigeria. In 2009, President Yar'Adua introduced the Presidential Amnesty Program (PAP) in hopes of bringing enduring peace to the region. The PAP provided stipend payments, professional training, and the promise of job placements for militants. In the first five years of the program, violent deaths in the Niger Delta dropped by 75 percent and oil production levels were restored. However, in the subsequent years, violent deaths have risen, and oil production has fallen well below pre-amnesty levels. This research evaluates the successes and failures of Nigeria's PAP to determine why the program was initially successful but has become increasingly ineffective with the passage of time. The research finds that the PAP initially succeeded in pacifying militants by providing financial incentives and bringing them into the newly created PAP network. However, the PAP failed to build enduring peace because it neglected large swaths of the population, and with the passage of time, the economic incentives for former militants dwindled due to the effect of inflation on militant's stipends. As a result, both the wider population and former militants have turned to widespread oil theft as a means to compensate for their economic plight.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1213554
Entities
People
- John R Magill
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School