Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Derived from Subject Matter Expert Elicitation

Abstract

This thesis studies uncertainty that is associated with using subject matter expert (SME) elicitation to assess risk. The U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) developed the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) Prioritization Tool to evaluate expected risk to a watershed based upon the condition of components in existing flood control infrastructure. Multiple SME rankings of component criticality are used in conjunction with gate failure consequence data to assign levels of risk to each component and prioritize components associated with the most risk for an OCA. We study three aspects of using the OCA Prioritization Tool. First, we utilize a method of comparing the data from individual SMEs to their peers to assess the consensus in rankings. Next, we utilize the nonparametric bootstrap to quantify the uncertainty in risk mitigation that comes from SME elicitation. Finally, we analyze the effects of having SMEs only ranking a select number of components instead of the entire set.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2023
Accession Number
AD1213587

Entities

People

  • Christopher D. Newcomb

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Engineered Resilient Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Air Force Facilities
  • Computational Science
  • Dams
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Department Of Defense
  • Drainage Basins
  • Engineers
  • Flood Control
  • Floods
  • Gates
  • Information Science
  • Mathematical Models
  • Operations Research
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Standards
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistics
  • United States

Readers

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  • Regression Analysis.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.