Utilizing Earth Systems Prediction Capability (ESPC) to Forecast Mistral Wind Events
Abstract
Mistral wind events impact the coast of France and build seas in the Gulf of Lion. Strong and persistent wind events impact the routing of naval vessels and the ability to conduct operations in the Mediterranean. Properly identifying the meteorological synoptic picture is key to forecasters seeking to accurately predict Mistral events. Navy Earth Systems Prediction System (ESPC) is a coupled model developed by Naval Research Laboratory to produce atmospheric, oceanographic, and ice sub-seasonal forecasts. Using publicly available deterministic forecasts (from August 2017 through December 2021) and surface pressure and wind analyses, the skill of ESPC and forecast thumb rules in predicting the mistral between 7 and 21 days is evaluated. Deterministic ESPC displays a low amount of skill in directly predicting mistral events two to three weeks ahead. However, using the ESPC prediction of forecaster thumb rules increase the skill in some instances. Analysis of surface pressure and winds over the forecast area for the deterministic forecast was not found to be a reliable method for predicting events beyond the range of typical weather models.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2022
- Accession Number
- AD1213755
Entities
People
- Jason C. Dahl
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School