Employing Markov Models to Forecast the End Strength of the U.S. Navy Supply Corps' Financial Management (3111) Community
Abstract
The Navy Supply Corps has a wide array of Subspecialties (SSP) and Additional Qualification Designations (AQD) that define an officer's skillset/experience and billet requirements. Current planning by the Supply Corps' Office of Personnel (OP) assumes identical retention rates across all SSP/AQD combinations. This strategy may lead to unanticipated effects when changes to policy occur. Our research applies the Markov model to manpower data obtained from OP to analyze the current and forecasted end strength of the Supply Corps' Financial Management (FM) community. This research addresses the following questions: 1) What are the forecasted end strengths for Navy Supply Corps Officers with FM experience and qualifications? 2) Does the FM community's current billet structure create enough FM officers to achieve OP's inventory goal of 2.5 times the number of qualified FM officers per FM billet at the O5-O6 level? We find that if the Supply Corps' FM community continues along its current manpower trajectory, OP will likely never achieve its inventory goal for the community. However, our models provide multiple ways through which OP can achieve its O5-O6 inventory goals over time.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2022
- Accession Number
- AD1213817
Entities
People
- Brett R. Jacobs
- Dartanyon R. King
- Michael A. Curtis
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School