Crisis And Opportunity: Russia's War in Ukraine and the Middle East
Abstract
Russia's war in Ukraine instigated a new era in strategic competition. As this report examines, outside of Europe, no region has been more affected by the war than the Middle East, nor been more consequential to its geopolitics. The report analyzes how the war became a crisis and opportunity for regional powers. All Middle East powers declared neutrality in the conflict; however, as this report identifies, their actions tended to bolster Russia's position in the war more often than not, putting them at odds with U.S. policies and interests. Whereas Iran backed Russia with military aid, further deepening the Russo-Iranian strategic convergence, other regional states pursued a less overtly supportive approach. Both Turkey and Israel attempted to balance their relations with Ukraine and Russia, even if the latter is more important to their foreign policy objectives. Saudi Arabia and the UAE deepened ties to Russia and provided indirect support. The UAE became crucial to Russia's ability to sell oil and navigate sanctions, and Saudi Arabia backed Russia's war through its own self-interest of keeping oil prices rising. The disruption to wheat exports from Ukraine which threatened food insecurity in the region and beyond was managed, and disaster averted, but the potential for serious disruptions remains. The report concludes by highlighting how the Middle Easts role in the conflict, as well as the wars impact on the region, has been a stark reminder that great power competition is neither binary nor limited to the principal competitors its ramifications are global and regional actors play an important, if underappreciated role.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1214567
Entities
People
- Afshon Ostovar
- Emily Meierding
- Ryan Gingeras
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School