Revisiting Rands Russia Wargames After the Invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

In mid-2022, after the opening months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a group of RAND Corporation researchers assembled an internal workshop to examine the recent events of the Russia-Ukraine War. All the participants had been involved in the design and execution of RAND tabletop exercise wargames involving Russia during the preceding eight years, mostly centered on the challenges facing a North Atlantic Treaty Organization defense of the Baltic states. The focus of their deliberations was understanding the reasons for the similarities and differences between how Russian forces had fared in those games and the relatively poor real-world performance of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. This report summarizes the unclassified conclusions of the workshop that followed a comprehensive review of wargaming methods and analysis used, and it identifies implications for future wargaming and analysis of potential conflicts involving major power adversaries. This is not an in-depth research report about Russian military capabilities or the war in Ukraine but rather the proceedings of an internal workshop from experienced wargamers reflecting on recent events. This report should be of interest to defense and security analysts, policymakers, and wargaming practitioners.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 27, 2023
Accession Number
AD1215399

Entities

People

  • Barry Wilson
  • Bradley Martin
  • Clint Reach
  • D. S. Barnett
  • David A. Ochmanek
  • Gian Gentile
  • John C. Jackson
  • Larl P. Mueller
  • Mark Hvizda

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Defense
  • Air Force
  • Anti-Tank Missiles
  • Artillery Ammunition
  • Attrition
  • Battle Damage Assessment
  • Combat Areas
  • Command And Control
  • Contingency Operations (Military)
  • Defense Systems
  • Military Organizations
  • National Security
  • Prompt Global Strike
  • Short Range Air Defense
  • Short Range Ballistic Missiles
  • Surface To Air Missiles
  • Warfare

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Military History / Militaries and War Studies
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.