Revisiting Rands Russia Wargames After the Invasion of Ukraine
Abstract
In mid-2022, after the opening months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a group of RAND Corporation researchers assembled an internal workshop to examine the recent events of the Russia-Ukraine War. All the participants had been involved in the design and execution of RAND tabletop exercise wargames involving Russia during the preceding eight years, mostly centered on the challenges facing a North Atlantic Treaty Organization defense of the Baltic states. The focus of their deliberations was understanding the reasons for the similarities and differences between how Russian forces had fared in those games and the relatively poor real-world performance of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. This report summarizes the unclassified conclusions of the workshop that followed a comprehensive review of wargaming methods and analysis used, and it identifies implications for future wargaming and analysis of potential conflicts involving major power adversaries. This is not an in-depth research report about Russian military capabilities or the war in Ukraine but rather the proceedings of an internal workshop from experienced wargamers reflecting on recent events. This report should be of interest to defense and security analysts, policymakers, and wargaming practitioners.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 27, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1215399
Entities
People
- Barry Wilson
- Bradley Martin
- Clint Reach
- D. S. Barnett
- David A. Ochmanek
- Gian Gentile
- John C. Jackson
- Larl P. Mueller
- Mark Hvizda
Organizations
- RAND Corporation