Planning for an Uncertain Future: What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean For U.S. Central Command
Abstract
THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA are projected to become hotter and drier, with reduced access to fresh water, resulting from climate change. The leadership of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is concerned that these changes could lead to greater conflict in its area of responsibility (AOR). CENTCOM leaders asked the RAND Corporation to help them better understand the role that a changing climate plays in regional stability, the effects of climate change on human systems, and how to mitigate potential threats that could arise from climate change. For example, within the CENTCOM AOR, extreme temperatures and water scarcity during the summer months contributed to significant civil unrest in Basra, Iraq, from 2018 to 2022. Simmering disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could escalate fresh water competition between Egypt and Ethiopia into conflict. These impacts from climate hazards are anticipated to continue to spill over into the security environment, changing the character of intrastate conflict in the region and creating demand for stabilization operations, noncombatant evacuation operations, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR). CENTCOM's interest in addressing climate stress in the AOR goes beyond preventing and responding to conflict. Adapting to climate change also presents CENTCOM with an opportunity to build partner resilience to climate hazards, with the ancillary benefit of strengthening bonds within the CENTCOM coalition.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1215757
Entities
People
- Carlos C. Hernandez
- Flannery Dolan
- Jeffrey Martini
- Karen M. Sudkamp
- Karishma V. Patel
- Michelle E. Miro
Organizations
- RAND Corporation