Conflict Projections in U.S. Central Command. Incorporating Climate Change

Abstract

This report presents an analysis of the impact of climate change on the frequency of conflict in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR). In our analysis, we characterize the current state of scholarship on the topic before applying a machine learning framework to generate new conflict projections. We then identify reasons why existing work including our own might underestimate the relationship between climate hazards and conflict and conclude with an excursion on our modeling that illustrates the potential risk of an unexpected increase in conflict in the theater.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 30, 2023
Accession Number
AD1215761

Entities

People

  • Emily Allendorf
  • Jeffrey Martini
  • Karen M. Sudkamp
  • Maggie Habib
  • Mark Toukan
  • Nathan Chandler
  • Stephen Watts

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Central Asia
  • Climate Change
  • Defense Planning
  • Droughts
  • Economic Development
  • Economics
  • Geographic Regions
  • Geography
  • Governments
  • International Security
  • Machine Learning
  • National Security
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Storm Surges
  • Unified Combatant Commands
  • United States Central Command

Readers

  • Maritime Combat Support and Expeditionary Logistics.
  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - DoD AI Strategy