Variation in Phenological Shifts: How Do Annual Cycles and Genetic Diversity Constrain or Enable Responses to Climate Change?
Abstract
Effective management of wildlife on Department of Defense lands requires identifying which species, or populations, may be vulnerable to climate-driven phenological mismatch. We studied the ecological and genetic correlates of American kestrel (Falco sparverius) phenology and developed an individual-based model to test hypotheses about mechanisms underlying phenology shifts. We found that the effects of mismatch on adult survival and competition for mates and nest sites were the strongest drivers of early nesting, not the effects of mismatch on productivity, as commonly reported. Further, seasonal trade-offs between reproduction and survival limited nesting phenology shifts. We identified genetic variants within candidate genes that modulate the circannual rhythms of American kestrels. Genetic variants showed both multi- and single-gene effects on the timing of nesting and migration passage. However, genetic composition and diversity had only very small effects on nesting phenology shifts. Finally, we demonstrated the portability of our model by parameterizing it for species of concern. The creation of an individual-based model that integrates functional genetic and ecological information, and simulates both evolutionary and ecological processes, was an important advancement for understanding and predicting population responses to environmental change and increases our understanding of the mechanisms underlying phenology shifts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 20, 2022
- Accession Number
- AD1216977
Entities
People
- Anjolene R. Hunt
- Benjamin P. Pauli
- Breanna F. Powers
- Christen M Bossu
- Christopher J. Mcclure
- Jason M. Winiarski
- Julie A Heath
- Kathleen R. Callery
- Kristen C. Ruegg
- M. D. Oleyar
- Richard A. Fisher
- Sarah E. Schwiltz
- Stephanie J. Galla
Organizations
- Boise State University
- United States Army Corps of Engineers