Advancing Best Practices for the Analysis of the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Pacific Basin to Coastal Flooding under a Changing Climate

Abstract

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US Geologic Survey (USGS) and university partners conducted a study to improve the Department of Defenses (DoDs) ability to understand and predict how coastal flooding will impact installations and the operations and missions they support. A variety of methods are described and applied to assess exposure. This includes tide gauge station-based diagnosis and prognosis of patterns and trends of Still Water Level, techniques to characterize the expression of lesser extremes (e.g., sub-annual to sub-decadal event probabilities), and region-wide analysis that improves upon results obtained from conventional single-tide gauge analyses. A novel hybrid statistical and dynamical modeling approach is developed for the analysis of Total Water Levels, necessary for exposure assessment along shorelines exposed to wave action. It is applied at four locations in the Pacific Basin. The hybrid exposure assessment modeling approach is incorporated into a broader mission-based protocol for the assessment of resilience to coastal flooding at the installation level. The protocol is demonstrated via an exemplar assessment, which considers functional (lost day) as well as financial impacts (lost dollars). This meets the demand for an actionable characterization of how DoD installations will be affected by coastal flooding and improves DoDs ability to make informed decisions about how to adapt to its effects.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 25, 2023
Accession Number
AD1217008

Entities

People

  • Ana Rueda
  • Ayesha S Genz
  • Chris Chiesa
  • Curt D. Storlazzi
  • Dylan Anderson
  • Eric Leuliette
  • Fernando Mendez
  • Héctor Lobeto
  • Ian D. Robertson
  • J. M. Becker
  • Jayantha Obeysekera
  • John J. Marra
  • José A. A. Antolínez
  • Laura Cagigal
  • Mark A. Merrifield
  • Matthew J Widlandsky
  • Melisa Menendez
  • Michael Kruk
  • Peter Ruggiero
  • William V Sweet

Organizations

  • California State University
  • Florida International University
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • Oregon State University
  • Pacific Disaster Center
  • United States Army Corps of Engineers
  • University of Cantabria
  • University of Hawaiʻi System

Tags

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Environmental Engineering.
  • Systems Analysis and Design