Downscaling Nonstationarity: Process-Based Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation Projections and Downscaling Methods Over the CONUS: Charting a Path for End-Users from the CMIP6 Ensemble to Multivariate Facility-Level Risks
Abstract
There is a critical need for granular information on how surface temperature and precipitation statistical distributions will change across the Conterminous United States (CONUS) at the DoD Facility Level throughout the 21st Century. Ensuring resilience for infrastructure and operations in the face of nonstationarity, where surface conditions that occurred in the past may not encompass the range of conditions in the future, requires this information. Unfortunately, the primary tools for developing projections of future surface temperature and precipitation, Earth System Models (ESMs), are producing overwhelmingly large datasets that both disagree with each other at the regional level and do not resolve the hydroclimate processes that are most likely to impact Facilities . Therefore, the primary objective of RC19-1391 is to develop localized, accessible surface temperature and precipitation projections, along with their uncertainties, using state-of-the-science information from ESMs.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 22, 2022
- Accession Number
- AD1217024
Entities
People
- Daniel R. Feldman
- Dominic M. Di Toro
- Herbert E Allen
- Jimmy M. Gelvez
- Kevin P Hickey
- Paula C. Hernandez
- Pei Chiu
- Richard F. Carbonaro
Organizations
- University of California, Berkeley
- University of Delaware