Managing Escalation: Lessons and Challenges from Three Historical Crises Between Nuclear-Armed Powers Research Summary

Abstract

A war between the United States and a capable, nuclear-armed adversary would introduce the risk of destructive strikes on a scale the United States has not seriously contemplated since the end of the Cold War. The main debate in the policy world is between advocates of theories of victory that are reliant on denial and advocates of theories of victory that depend on cost imposition. Cost-imposition strategies, such as those requiring a distant blockade or a punitive air campaign, require the United States to successfully navigate what we refer to as the Goldilocks Challenge: how to identify with high confidence a "sweet spot" of pressure points that are valuable enough to influence enemy decisionmaking but not so valuable that they cause unacceptable retaliation.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 26, 2024
Accession Number
AD1222213

Entities

People

  • Alexander T Evans
  • Emily Ellinger
  • Jacob L. Heim
  • Lydia Grek
  • Nathan Beauchamp-mustafaga
  • Zachary Burdette

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Readers

  • Strategic Security Studies