Implementing Dynamic Discrete Choice Models of Military Retention
Abstract
Analyses of military manpower and personnel issues can benefit greatly from the use of structural dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models. Policy makers design compensation and personnel policies with specific objectives in mind, such as meeting a retention target in a given occupation or increasing the average length of service obligation. To evaluate whether a proposed policy would achieve its objective, we need models that can tell us about how service members would behave under the new policy. Such models should account for not just compensation, but all aspects of the service members' careers that are relevant to the retention decision. Structural DDC models are a powerful tool for specifying how compensation and career characteristics enter service members' retention decisions and they allow us to predict retention outcomes under the proposed policy. These predictions can be used to assess the effects of the policy change on the military's ability to meet its manpower and readiness objectives. We frame the construction and describe in detail the estimation of DDC models in the context of service member attrition decisions. Additionally, we describe extensions of DDC models that are particularly useful in military retention applications and we review the existing literature on recent military applications.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1223488
Entities
People
- Alan B. Gelder
- Jacklyn R. Kambic
- John W. Dennis
- Mikhail Smirnov
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses