Preferred, Not Assured: Anticipating U.S.-Japan Cooperation in a Taiwan Contingency
Abstract
With the dramatic rise in the PRC's economic and military power, concerns are mounting over the possibility of conflict over Taiwan, which could bring the United States and PRC into direct combat. The ability of the U.S. to effectively provide support to Taiwan in the event of conflict will depend on the degree of support provided by Japan to the U.S. Japan alliance. Commensurate with the PRC's more assertive behavior since 2012, Japan has committed to efforts to modernize and expand the Japan Self-Defense Forces while, for the first time, vocally expressing its interest in peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue. This thesis seeks to answer a key question: How has Japan's defense policy adapted to the greater threat towards Taiwan and to what degree could Japan aid a U.S. military response to defend Taiwan? This thesis reviews national policy documents plus economic and survey data to trace Japan's policy towards Taiwan and the use of military force over the previous decade. It finds that Japan has become more vocal in expressing its desire to maintain the Taiwan status quo, but that Japan is stymied in its ability to respond to a Taiwan contingency by its constitution, public preferences, and realized military capabilities. By better understanding the existing restrictions on the use of the Japan Self-Defense Force, the U.S. can more accurately include Japan in contingency planning for a Taiwan conflict.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1224358
Entities
People
- Austyn A. Sutton
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School