Deterring Illegal Entry: Migrant Sanctions and Recidivism in Border Apprehensions

Abstract

Over 2008 to 2012, the U.S. Border Patrol enacted new sanctions on migrants apprehended attempting to enter the U.S. illegally. Using administrative records on apprehensions of Mexican nationals that include fingerprint-based IDs and other details, we detect if an apprehended migrant is subject to penalties and if he is later re-apprehended. Exploiting plausibly random variation in the roll-out of sanctions, we estimate econometrically that exposure to penalties reduced the 18-month re-apprehension rate for males by 4.6 to 6.1 percentage points off of a baseline rate of 24.2 percent. These magnitudes imply that sanctions can account for 28 to 44 percent of the observed decline in recidivism in apprehensions. Further results suggest that the drop in recidivism was associated with a reduction in attempted illegal entry.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 03, 2019
Accession Number
AD1224522

Entities

People

  • Bryan W. Roberts
  • Gordon Hanson
  • John E. Whitley
  • Samuel Bazzi
  • Sarah K. Burns

Organizations

  • Institute for Defense Analyses

Tags

Readers

  • Civilian Systems Systems Program Capability Development and Upgrade Support Activity Expense and Pay Management.
  • Mathematics or Statistics
  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.