Quantifying the Value of Environmental Sources and Oceanographic Forecasts in Undersea Warfare Decision-Making

Abstract

This thesis explores the critical role of oceanographic forecasting in enhancing the United States Navy's undersea warfare (USW) mission, with a focus on passive sound navigation and ranging (SoNAR) techniques for detecting enemy submarines. Through a comparative analysis of two forecasting sources, one based on daily numerical modeling and the other on historical climatological data, the study assesses their impact on decision outcomes. Surprisingly, the research reveals that climatology offers comparable, if not slightly more reliable results than numerical forecasting, challenging conventional assumptions. The findings emphasize the importance of tailored environmental source selection and forecasting parameters in USW operations, potentially leading to improved mission success. Furthermore, the study suggests the need for further experiments in other regions and evaluating the impact of forecasting source on other USW decisions and the inclusion of classified ambient noise databases to enhance future decision-making processes in USW.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 2023
Accession Number
AD1224536

Entities

People

  • Joseph Cantwell

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Maritime and Naval Warfare Studies
  • Strategic Security Studies