Understanding the Drivers of Extreme Precipitation Events in Pakistan
Abstract
Pakistan has been highly affected by the impacts of climate change, which have resulted in abnormal weather events. Over the past 14 years, Pakistan has witnessed two large-scale floodings (in 2010 and 2022) caused by abnormal precipitation events, which led to the loss of precious lives. The stark reality is that considering the geographical location of Pakistan, large-scale floodings caused by high precipitation events are likely to pose a threat in the future as well. This study investigated the drivers for extreme precipitation events in Pakistan that led to these large-scale floodings. Data for 54 years of atmospheric variables from 1970-2023 were evaluated. The study selected a predictand region (28-34 N, 67-73 E) that had a wide representation of abnormal weather events in Pakistan, particularly the floods in 2010 and 2022. Subsequently, analysis of the atmospheric variables was done at long term means (LTM), including their composite anomalies, to select predictors linked to high precipitation. Later, correlation analysis between predictand and potential predictors led to our finalized set of predictors, including 850 hPa GPH over the Nepal and Red Sea at zero lead, SST over the South Central Indian Ocean and Southwest Indian Ocean (one month lead). Finally, statistical analysis using a logistic regression model was undertaken along with accuracy analysis using precipitation thresholds.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1225366
Entities
People
- Hassan Ilyas
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School