The Fates of Nations: Varieties of Success and Failure for Great Powers in Long-Term Rivalries
Abstract
The United States, according to official U.S. national security statements and an avalanche of commentary, is engaged in a long-term strategic rivalry with China and a lesser but still critical rivalry for influence with Russia. These rivalries, especially with China, promise to define U.S. foreign policy and national security challenges for decades. Yet most assessments of these rivalries tend to ignore the critical question of outcomes: What does success or failure in a rivalry look like, and what varieties of success can great powers aspire to? The research in this report, part of a larger project that considers the societal sources of national dynamism and competitive advantage, seeks to identify historical modes of strategic success and failure in great power rivalries that offer lessons for the United States. We present categories of success and failure (in terms of such variables as control over territory, relative power, victory or defeat in war, international legitimacy, and social stability) and offer detailed case studies on specific historical examples associated with success and failure. We then discuss the implications of the typologies of both kinds of outcomes for the rivalry with China.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 11, 2024
- Accession Number
- AD1225763
Entities
People
- Alexis Dale-huang
- Gregory Weider Fauerbach
- John Deak
- Joshua Shifrinson
- Michael J. Mazarr
- Stacie Goddard
- Timothy R. Heath
Organizations
- RAND Corporation