A Just and Durable Peace for Ukraine: Lessons Learned from Wars in Finland, the Korean Peninsula, and the Former Yugoslavia That Can Shape the U.S. Approach to the Endgame of Russia's War

Abstract

Despite the current attritional phase of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the West's growing war fatigue, the course of the war foreshadows Moscow's eventual strategic defeat, even if likely not in 2024. This paper contends that the United States must re-visit lessons learned from past wars to best lead an international coalition that ensures a realistic, just, and durable peace for Ukraine. To reach the above conclusions, this paper proceeds in five parts. The first analyzes the major takeaways thus far of Russia's full-scale invasion. The second explores the war's most realistic scenarios in 2024. The third section studies three distinct wars - the Russo-Finnish War, the Korean War, and the Croatian War for Independence - that provide useful perspectives on the possible conclusion to the Russo-Ukrainian War. The fourth section provides a theoretical baseline to conflict resolution and analyzes the peace negotiations (or lack thereof) and the peace formulas in play. Finally, the fifth section makes policy recommendations for the Biden Administration to help shape a resolution to the war that factors in the interests of Ukraine, our close partner, and best serves the national interests of the United States.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 05, 2024
Accession Number
AD1227843

Entities

People

  • Mark O. Gul

Organizations

  • National Defense University

Tags

Fields of Study

  • History
  • Sociology

Readers

  • International Relations and European Studies
  • Military History of the United States in the 20th Century.
  • Systems Analysis and Design