Do Not Resuscitate Shock and Awe as a Cyber Crisis Resolution Concept
Abstract
As states assess how to maximize cyber effects in militarized crises with peer opponents, the concept of shock and awe is being resuscitated. By inducing pause during a crisis, the logic goes, an opponent will re-evaluate the risks of pursuing their revisionist objectives, conclude they cannot be achieved at an acceptable cost, and accept a return to the pre-crisis status quo. A superficial consideration of the potential military effects of a surprise, massive cyber onslaught might suggest this is an efficient and profitable option. A deeper assessment, however, argues for a different conclusion. Cyber shock and awe is difficult, if not impossible, to achieve against peer opponents. Moreover, shock and awe represents a non-gradual approach to crisis management, which is counter to what we know about how great powers historically have resolved crises short of war. Thus, cyber shock and awe will likely increase the risks of escalating into war. Finally, shock, which tactical surprise intends to engender, has not deterred opponents from significant military retaliation or made armed conflict less deadly if deterrence fails.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 2022
- Accession Number
- AD1228866
Entities
People
- Michael P. Fischerkeller
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses