Constructing an Elicitation on the Risks of Weapons of Mass Destruction Lessons from Analyzing the Lugar Survey
Abstract
In 2005, Senator Richard Lugar polled eighty-five experts to quantify their weapons of mass destruction risk perceptions and identify points of convergence and divergence, with the overarching goal of drawing increased attention to the need for greater nonproliferation efforts. The results of this survey are presented in The Lugar Survey on Proliferation Threats and Responses, and the contents of that report are the focus of our analysis efforts. We also examine nearly two decades of citations of this report from 2005 to mid-2023. An online appendix summarizes our literature search. Senator Lugar was clear in cautioning that the survey was a political effort, rather than a scientific survey. And it has been successful in its goal of encouraging dialogue on proliferation threats. We find, however, that most documents citing the Lugar survey have ignored Senator Lugar's caution by taking its results at face value in other words, without appropriate caveats thereby lending greater credibility to it than is warranted. Our examination of the Lugar survey explains the basis for Senator Lugar's caution, focusing on survey methodology and implementation, as well as the analysis and presentation of results. We offer numerous suggestions for any future survey that aspires to utilize best elicitation and analysis practices.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 30, 2024
- Accession Number
- AD1228990
Entities
People
- James Scouras
- Jane Booker
- Lori Baxter
Organizations
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory