Is China Prepared for War? Indications and Warning of a Potential Chinese Conflict with the United States
Abstract
Amid worsening U.S.-China tensions and an unrelenting Chinese military buildup, fears have grown that Beijing may be preparing for war. In this testimony, I will address the topic of whether China is prepared for a conflict with the United States. I will begin by distinguishing between the concepts of military preparedness and national war preparation. There is ample evidence that China's military is enhancing its preparedness, but little evidence that the national leadership intends to fight a war anytime soon. A principal obstacle to China initiating war lies in politics--in particular, the lack of a constituency for war and the unprepared condition of the bureaucracy. The most important indicators of a potential conflict would consist of efforts to overcome these obstacles. Although difficult to achieve, once a Chinese leader has set the political conditions for conflict, the risk of war could rise dramatically. The timing of a preplanned attack or even the escalation of a crisis to a major war under such conditions would likely be very difficult to predict.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 13, 2024
- Accession Number
- AD1230109
Entities
People
- Timothy R. Heath
Organizations
- RAND Corporation