Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation: Possibilities, Limitations, and Consequences
Abstract
Beijing's consistent, if cautious, support for the Kremlin since February 2022 demonstrates how important the Sino-Russian relationship has become for both countries. Despite the Peoples Republic of China's sustained support, the growth and constraints that surround the Sino-Russian relationship are real and include expanded interaction between the two countries across a range of strategically important areas. Simultaneously, historical animosity and mistrust between Russia and China are not mere remnants of a distant past - the adversarial relationship that developed in the decades following the Sino-Soviet split in the early 1960's is something that senior leaders on both sides lived through and experienced in some form. As recently as the late 1980s, China and the Soviet Union were enemies who devoted significant defense and military resources to countering each other along the extensive border that separated the two countries. Todays Russia-China relationship may be best characterized as a marriage of two imperfect partners who share a deeply cynical view of the current U.S.-led international order but hold often divergent visions of the order that they believe should replace it. In this same vein, these imperfect partners realize that some level of shared, albeit unequal, dependency is necessary while simultaneously harboring deep suspicions about whether they can trust or rely on the other. Ultimately, the backdrop and motivation for any future military cooperation particularly in terms of an operational partnership is based much more on dissatisfaction with the U.S.-led order and a common dislike for the United States than it is on a shared strategic vision and common values.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2024
- Accession Number
- AD1230596
Entities
People
- Alexis A. Blanc
- Anthony Atler
- Cortez A. Iii Cooper
- David Woodworth
- Kotryna Juknevicute
- Mark Cozad
- Mark Hvizda
- Sale Lilly
Organizations
- RAND Corporation