Middle-Power Equities in a Cross-Strait Conflict
Abstract
An armed conflict between China and Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait is likely to affect the rest of Asia and other nations across the world. Above all, such a conflict could draw the United States into a great-power conflict with China. Such a war could also draw several middle powers into conflict and certainly affect the political, economic, and security interests of these states. Middle-power countries lack the size and influence to disrupt the global order significantly on their own. At the same time, middle powers might possess the capability and willingness to play substantial roles in shaping global events in pursuit of their own interests. In this report, we explore the equities of four middle powers - Australia, Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom - and the roles that they might play in deterring or limiting conflict between China and Taiwan. We analyze these four countries as representative of middle powers according to various factors, including their relative power on existing country-power rankings lists, their bilateral defense agreements with the United States or China; their lack of a preexisting risk of direct conflict with China, the United States, or allies of either; and their possible willingness to play a mediating role in across-Strait conflict. We also summarize insights that we gleaned from interviews with analysts and policymakers from these four middle-power nations. We expect these insights will be useful to policymakers in Taiwan, the United States, and middle powers with a stake in the Asia-Pacific region.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2024
- Accession Number
- AD1230598
Entities
People
- Cortez A. Iii Cooper
- Joan Chang
- Rafiq Dossani
Organizations
- RAND Corporation