Why Drones Have Revolutionized Warfare: Drone Quasi-Maneuver Attributes in the Offense-Defense Balance
Abstract
This paper provides an alternative view to an article that appeared in International Security (Spring 2022) entitled Why Drones have not Revolutionized Warfare. In this article, Antonio Calcara et al. argue that drones as aircraft have not revolutionized warfare, but are merely an extension of the hider-finder competition between air defense and air penetration. As a result, drones are a continuation not a transformation of current patterns of warfare. As a contrasting view to the Calcare article, this paper argues that the defensive attributes of drone operations can be transformational. Our two major findings are that drone operations have 1) quasi-maneuver aspects that extend the maneuver space and 2) certain defensive advantages that (under certain conditions) could result in a stalemate. Novel ideas from these findings include the 1) temporal lag in drone effects and countermeasures; 2) resemblance of drone operations to a turning movement; 3) pre-conditions for a drone-generated stalemate; 4) rationale for why some conflicts are an exception to our findings; and 5) implications for future drone and counter-drone operations. As support, the paper examines multiple recent conflicts supported by data of drone strikes. This data-driven approach over multiple conflicts is rare in the literature and places this paper's findings on a firm basis. Still, data limitations require a re-examination of these findings when better data becomes available.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 2024
- Accession Number
- AD1230845
Entities
People
- Kenton G. Fasana
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses