Towards Inserting Magnetic Ejecta into a Space Weather Model

Abstract

Our objective is to investigate and characterize magnetic structures within CMEs, from eruption to impact with Earth, using a combination of data-supported models and enhanced remote sensing data that connect solar and in-situ measurements. Although the magnetic field entrained in a CME is critical to its geoeffectiveness, predicting that field has been difficult because of incomplete understanding and modeling limitations; hence, current forecasting tools do not account for CME magnetic field. Satisfying our objective will improve space weather prediction through new physical understanding and through the tools we develop. Our project meets key scientific and operational goals of AFOSR by advancing basic research and the goal of a geoeffectiveness forecast capability. Our work is organized to address specific questions: 1. How are CME magnetic structures observed near the Sun connected to in-situ structures? By measuring the structural and kinematic evolution of CME cavities (flux ropes) in enhanced white-light images from STEREO, which enable continuous tracking and association of solar and in-situ structures, we will gain understanding of how CME magnetic structures evolve from Sun to Earth, and enable better prediction of CME geoeffectiveness. 2. What are the dynamics of CMEs in interplanetary space? With a few innovative changes to WSA-Enlil, we will produce simulations of hypothetical magnetic ejecta, leading to understanding of solar wind interactions, and directly enabling a better CME geoeffectiveness forecast capability. 3. How does CME behavior in the solar wind change with differing physical circumstances surrounding its launch? Using a novel hybrid simulation designed to preserve magnetic structure, we will investigate CME launch scenarios and their affect on CME evolution, and compare them with enhanced imaging data from STEREO.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 19, 2022
Accession Number
AD1230890

Entities

People

  • Curt De Koning

Organizations

  • University of Colorado Boulder

Tags

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers
  • Solar Physics
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • Space