Forecasting Northeastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks Using an Analog Scheme.

Abstract

The NEPHAT (Northeastern Pacific Hurricane Analog Tracker) Forecast Program is developed and introduced. NEPHAT selects analog tropical cyclones from 25-year Northeastern Pacific Ocean history. Each selected analog track is statistically adjusted for known differences between it and the recent history of the tropical cyclone being forecasted. The adjusted analog cyclone trajectories are then composited into a single forecast track. Verification results are shown for randomly selected historical cases, with a Monte Carlo simulation of initial operational position inaccuracies. Intercomparisons of forecasts made by NEPHAT and other objective and subjective forecast schemes are presented.

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1974
Accession Number
ADA001289

Entities

People

  • Charles Joel Mauck Iii

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Cyclones
  • Delphi Method
  • Hurricanes
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Oceans
  • Pacific Ocean
  • Simulations
  • Simulators
  • Trajectories
  • Tropical Cyclones
  • Verification

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation